Adaptation Studies

Adaptation studies in Central America

Adaptation studies in the region are being implemented by several initiatives (for example, the GEF phase II adaptation initiative for Central America, Mexico and Cuba). However, considering that impact studies are the preliminary steps to initiate an adaptation management strategy, we refer to such a framework to show some readily available information for TroFCCA (references available upon demand).

In Central America, several studies on forests are in place but have not explicitly considered climate change as a reference for undertaking adaptation actions. An example of such a study is the FAO Global Forest Fire Assessment 1990-2000. Increased forest fire susceptibility is deemed among the most likely impact of climate change in Central America. The 1998 effect of ENSO-induced drought, brought forest fire impacts to an estimated US$127 million and is an example of the potential compounded impact of human and climate change induced forest fires. This potentiality is illustrated by the study of Rodriguez et al. (2001) who confirmed the likely impacts of climate projected changes for Nicaragua on increasing the vulnerability of forests to fires by increasing dryness conditions and trees flammability under 4 climate change scenarios.

The Regional Committee for Hydraulic Resources (Jimenez et al., 2002) has systematized the information related to water resources that countries of the region have presented in their first National Communication to the UNFCCC. Honduras reports focuses its vulnerability to the impacts of extreme events. Nicaragua, particularly in the Pacific Region, reports increasing dryness, which is likely to exacerbate existing conflicts of use on water resources (hydroelectric power generation, domestic water supply and agriculture). Moreover, a serious reduction of aquifers in Nicaragua (10% relative to the actual) is likely, further putting pressure to current scarcity problems in the Pacific.  For Costa Rica, the region of Guanacaste will be the most affected by the reduction in water availability.  This will affect hydroelectric power generation and water supply for tourism.