Historical trends analysis and scenario visioning
What: This is an approach that helps people to understand what has led to the present situation and what factors will lead to different future outcomes. It is a discussion of changes in trends in the past, such as trends in illegal hunting and agricultural production, and the events or interventions that caused changes on the landscape level, such as reflecting on the effect of the cocoa crisis on poaching and agricultural production. In a multi-stakeholder workshop, participants list in chronological order the major historical events that have resulted in the present condition of the landscape. This can generate quite a heated debate about what was, and was not, important. Once the historical influences have been agreed upon then it is possible to begin to look at future scenarios.
Participants also describe the worst and best possible future scenarios and discuss what influences will lead to these different outcomes.
When: This approach is useful in the early stages of a project but can also be used to help take stock of progress and to set recent events into their historical perspectives. Scenarios need to be revisited periodically.
What’s the time investment? Useful understanding can be developed in just half a day. Some sophisticated scenario development can involve original data collection and computer modelling approaches that are more time consuming need to be sustained over longer periods.
