A research paper from CIFOR and partner institution, CATIE - the Tropical Agriculture Centre for Research and Higher Education - says Indonesia's climate will become warmer while annual rainfall will increase in most areas except for Java and the southern reaches of the archipelago.

What else does climate change have in store for this island nation of 230 million people? According to information from CIFOR, CATIE and other sources, such as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Indonesia will experience more than a few challenges - especially if recent history is any indication.

Future climate change scenarios indicate that by 2080 parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan may be 10-30 per cent wetter during the monsoon. On the other hand, Java and Bali may be drier by 15 per cent.

Seasonal variations and extreme weather events like El Niño are likely to be more severe and significantly increase the risk of forest fires during Indonesia’s dry seasons.

Climate change is also likely to increase the risk of more frequent forest fires in Indonesia’s southern regions where forests are generally drier, including the southern areas of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, as well as Java and Bali.

The prospect of more frequent fires is particularly disturbing. Parts of Indonesia already suffer forest and land fires on an annual basis. Recent research has shown that Indonesia’s devastating fires of 1997-98 caused estimated economic losses of US$9 billion.

Impacts resulting from forests fires enhanced by climate change include:

• Health: Forest fires release toxic gases such as carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and hydrocarbons that can cause severe respiratory illnesses. Higher rainfall and flooding will encourage a wider distribution of water-borne diseases. Higher tropical temperatures may increase the incidence of food-borne diseases.
• Livelihoods: Increasing prevalence and intensity of fires will harm the many communities who rely heavily on forests to provide their timber and non-timber needs, and to keep their water clean.
• Biodiversity loss: Fires directly eliminate plants and animals, as well as indirectly by degrading forest habitat. The 1997-1998 fires reduced Borneo’s orang-utan population by one-third.
• Forestry and agriculture: Natural and man-made fires have destroyed large areas of natural commercial forests as well as agricultural crops, such as pulp wood and oil palm plantations.
• Tourism: Fires and smoke haze discourage tourists from visiting forested areas. Fires can destroy forests with tourism potential.
• Transportation: Haze from fires affects city traffic and sea transportation. Low visibility caused by forest fires has in the past been linked to airplane and boat crashes.
• GHG emissions: Fires are the most effective means to oxidize biomass into carbon dioxide (CO2) and other trace gases. Indonesian's 1997/1998 fires accounted for more than half of the global CO2 annual growth.