The ban seems to have been good news for China's forests. But there are fears that as a result of the ban, China's import of timber is now exerting enormous pressure on the forests of South East Asia and eastern Russia, often in the form of illegal logging.

In response to this international concern, CIFOR and Washington-based NGO Forest Trends have launched a multi-partner project that will increase the level of intelligence available about timber demand and trade in China and the impacts this will have on conservation and livelihoods.

China's import of round wood in 2002 totaled 16 million cubic meters, some 16 times more than the figure for 1997. It is estimated this figure will reach 100 million cubic meters by 2010, accounting for half of the total annual demand in the country. Research undertaken by CIFOR and Forest Trends shows that the value of China's total timber, pulp and paper imports soared 75% to $11.2 billion in 2002 from $6.4 billion in 1997. Such a high demand has serious implications for global forestry conservation.

"You have a country that is growing at eight to nine percent, where its own domestic supply of forest products is decreasing, so it has created a huge demand for forest products from the region," says Kaimowitz, CIFOR's Director General. "The growth and changes in China will have a strong impact on livelihoods, jobs and people transforming forest products. We will also see considerable impact on local and neighbouring economies, and on the environment. That is why CIFOR has brought together scientists from around the world to work on this project."

Andy White, a Senior Director with Forest Trends, says there is no mechanism to monitor how China's import of timber will affect markets and the environment. "China's booming imports fuel illegal logging, unsustainable trade and poverty. Currently there is little knowledge of how to influence policy in China. There is a lack of understanding of the strategic leverage points to affect policy, lack of knowledge in the public arena about Chinese and regional market structure (and) limited capacity to conduct market analysis. In summary, we are missing the basic building blocks to launch effective development initiatives," says White.

White says the project will strengthen regional networks, identify leverage points where advocates can effect change and develop policy frameworks.

Project activities include identifying impact trends and impacts on livelihoods and the environment, analyzing key supply and demand trends in China affecting imports, analyzing financial flows driving regional timber trends, regulating frameworks that affect finance and due diligence and identifying opportunities for low income producers in East Asia to benefit from Chinese imports

Meanwhile, a three-year study released in December 2003 titled "China Wood Trade, Market and the Environment" by WWF - one of the project partners - says policies in China to promote economic development have stimulated a much greater demand for wood and wood products. WWF acknowledges that China has made a good start in areas such as forest restoration and forest sustainable management. But the report also encourages China to undertake a number of other initiatives, particularly in the areas of environmental protection, promoting environmentally sound timber production and the use of wood substitutes, examining licensing and quota systems for timber production and harvesting, encouraging the import of timber from well-managed forest resources, and reducing imports of illegally logged timber. GC

Key partners in the project include: the Chinese Center for Agricultural Policy, the Chinese Academy of Forestry, the International Tropical Timber Organization, World Agroforestry Centre, Foundation for People and Community Development - PNG, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia's Ministry of Forestry, University of British Colombia, Economic Research Institute - Russia.